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The Kill Switch in Budapest
There is a particular kind of risk that markets systematically underprice.
Mar 15
•
Chaos Capitalist
Strait of Hormuz: $20 Billion Against $352 Billion
The market priced a war. It has not priced what the insurance industry did in response. Those are two entirely different trades.
Mar 8
•
Chaos Capitalist
1
1
The $3.5 Trillion Homecoming: Japan's Yield Curve Exit and the Global Rate Shockpath
Every system built on distortion eventually corrects. The question is never whether. It is when, and how violently.
Mar 1
•
Chaos Capitalist
February 2026
The Peruvian Constitutional Reset and the Copper Dependency Trap
There is a particular kind of blindness that afflicts sophisticated market participants. It is not ignorance. It is the comfort of a familiar story.
Feb 22
•
Chaos Capitalist
The AI Capex Cycle Is Priced for Perfection. The Power Grid Isn't Ready.
Capital moves at the speed of conviction. Infrastructure moves at the speed of permits, pipelines, and political will.
Feb 15
•
Chaos Capitalist
The Baltic-Cairo Transmission: A Retrospective on the 2022 European Energy Shockpath
The consensus always reaches for the simplest frame. It is easier that way. Easier than admitting what actually broke.
Feb 8
•
Chaos Capitalist
The Chain Is Always Longer Than It Looks
A framework for following shockpaths past the first link.
Feb 1
•
Chaos Capitalist
1
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